In years past, cars were reduced to rolling entertainment systems, and car manufacturers ceded the infotainment space by delivering dreadful center stacks for years. This is why CarPlay and to a lesser extent Android Auto were able to gain the traction they have: the car manufacturers failed abysmally. Currently, there are hooks in CarPlay that allow manufacturers to expose telematics for the car as just another app on in the interface. GM pushed for this.

Demand for vehicle shipments can fall if the idea of private ownership as a necessity changes, especially when cars can be summoned on demand.

We know that customers see autonomy not as an upsold option, but as a feature that must come standard. It’s unsurprising that autonomy represents greater efficiency. The same was true of manual and automatic transmissions in the last few decades: having a computer shift was more efficient than a human working a clutch or paddles.

Other big changes: the drop in organ donation as accidents fall, and in the US, road use taxes that are built into petrol tax. There’s already arguments over how to charge EVs for causing wear to the roads when they don’t pay the tax at the gas pump. When the number of vehicles sold drops in addition, the revenue raised will be less, causing tense moments at legislatures around how to fund repairs to the asphalt.

By developing their own self-driving sensor and intelligence, by developing and committing to EV as a platform, the OEMs are avoiding disruption as we normally speak of it. They aren’t being blindsided. What isn’t at all decided is the outcome.