Android may eventually look more like iOS or Windows Phone, but it won’t become just like them for a few very basic reasons.

iOS is designed with the iPhone and iPad hardware for the user, who is also usually the buyer. Simple – buy it because it works better than other smartphones and tablets. The supporting services are also designed for the user, including superior apps, updating by Apple, proper respect for privacy and effective protection against malware.

Android is designed for phone manufacturers and networks. It’s an open question as to whether or not the manufacturers will allow themselves to become dependent on Google and Android in the same way that PC manufacturers became dependent on Microsoft and Windows. The phone manufacturers don’t want to head down a path that leads to where HP and Dell are now.

The phone manufacturers’ customers are usually the networks. Hence Samsung’s description of most of it’s smartphones as “network friendly, good enough”. To anyone else that means devalued by the network, second rate and inexpensive. In return for a low price the user usually gets outdated technology, sacrifices privacy to an alarming degree and isn’t properly protected from malware. The networks seem happy to sell phones with operating systems that are years out of date and don’t deliver on updating. That doesn’t apply to Samsung’s premium products, but it looks as if quality conscious customers are turning away from them in favour of iPhone.

For the networks, becoming the managers of dumb pipes seems to be their nightmare. For them, their Android offerings give them an opportunity to add their own value added services. That can’t do that with iPhones because Apple does it and won’t let them. That partly accounts for Apple’s relatively slow adoption by the networks. They seem to be contributing to their own nightmare scenario by doing such a poor job, particularly when compared to Apple who provide excellent services and support.

Microsoft’s Nokia acquisition suggests they would like to be more like Apple than Google, but they’ve got a long way to go. Their history of failure in doing anything but extending the previous Windows monopoly isn’t encouraging.

So, will Android become just like iOS or Windows Phone? No it won’t, because it’s design goals are different. The difference will become more, not less marked as Apple introduces new paradigms. New personal systems and home automation will deliver higher levels of cross platform integration than we’ve ever seen before. Apple is uniquely positioned to provide it, as the technology leader in computers, phones and tablets and a fast developing provider of online services..

I look forward to the day when the SEC requires Google to publish its results separately for desktop and mobile systems, just like other techs. Then we’ll all get a better understanding of what Android is.