• Digital Health has been quieter than usual this year and with very little progress on sensors to reliably measure critical health data, it is not hard to understand why.
• Beyond blood oxygenation (pretty easy) and pulse (also easy), blood pressure and blood glucose are two health markers that billions of people need to monitor but can only be reliably done with invasive procedures.
• That being said, the advent of continuous glucose monitors is a major step forward, but they are invasive (albeit minimally) and expensive to use at around $40 per week.
• Hence, there is still a huge market in waiting for anyone who can use a non-invasive sensor to measure this but still after more than 7 years of waiting, I have seen very little progress.
• At most CES shows one can find any number of companies who are using light-based sensors to measure blood pressure and blood glucose but this year there are even fewer than usual.
• Valencell, which has long been one of my hopefuls for blood pressure, has gone into hiding with no stand and the product it is showing in its suite is the same as the one that it showed last year.
• In Eureka Park where one can usually find any number of startups making this claim, there are only two both of which come from Asia.
• The first is called Accurate Meditech from Taiwan which uses a combination of two physical pressure sensors and an optical sensor on a 5cm by 3cm device to measure blood flow (and hence blood pressure) through the wrist.
• I have not seen this approach before, but the company says it has FDA approval for over-the-counter sales to the US consumer where the device will cost $200 and go on sale later this year.
• The other is a tiny startup from Singapore which uses an optical sensor to measure blood glucose, but the demonstration did not pass the smell test and where the measurements were very variable and far from convincing.
• With fewer sensors and no good demos, it looks like we are as far as ever from non-invasive blood pressure and blood glucose monitoring.
• I have been waiting for more than 7 years for this and at this rate this is starting to look like a retirement project.

AI Cooking – Middling cook, Bad chef

• No trip to CES is complete without a tour of the food tech section and here AI-powered robotic chefs are all the rage this year.
• From a robot that makes cocktails, another that can make Chinese stir-fries to another that makes dishes to order in an ordinary kitchen, the aim is to remove humans from food and beverage preparation with AI.
• If the dataset of ingredients was both static and finite then humans would very soon be out of the kitchen but, as usual, this is not the case.
• Each ingredient like a tomato, an egg, a piece of meat etc is different every single time it is used which is one reason why humans are equipped with an extremely sophisticated sensor and an algorithm that allows the dish to be adjusted once the recipe has been completed.
• This is why every recipe says “season to taste” at the end because the volatility of ingredients means that adjustment is almost always needed to make a great-tasting dish.
• The robot chefs lack both the sensor and the algorithm to make these adjustments meaning that every dish made by a robot is almost always going to be mediocre at best.
• For things that are more formulaic like baking basic loaves of bread or brewing beer robots have a better chance, but even the best bread machines can’t get remotely close to what a half-competent baker can achieve with the same ingredients.
• Despite these limitations, I think that there is a market for these types of products as it is becoming clearer that the obesity crisis is at least partially caused by the ready-made food products that dominate almost all supermarket shelves.
• The first cure for this is to prepare food from scratch at home with fresh ingredients but almost all consumers will say that they don’t have time for this.

• The new Matter standard has the potential to end the fragmentation and incompatibility of the smart home but even with all of the big digital ecosystems supporting it, there are limitations and scope for substantial complexity to damage the user experience.
• Matter is an application layer protocol which was created to address the issue of interoperability between different smart home systems and devices.
• It was created by the Connectivity Standards Alliance led by Silicon Labs and version 1.0 was made available earlier this month.
• Matter is of most interest because all of the big digital ecosystems that are active in the smart home have decided to adopt it.
• Samsung with its SmartThings ecosystem is the latest to move ahead with Matter and will be using it to ensure that its products work well with Google Home and vice-versa.
• Although Samsung says nothing about Apple and Amazon, the fact that it is adopting the standard will mean that its devices should also work with Siri, Alexa and their respective apps for controlling the smart home.
• However, this is where things get complicated because Matter 1.0 is a specification and not a piece of code.
• Specifications tend to be written in English while code is written in a language that a computer understands meaning that there is scope for interpretation during coding which often leads to fragmentation.
• Furthermore, the digital ecosystems all compete with each other for the user’s attention in order to drive loyalty or revenue, and so there is an inbuilt incentive to ensure that some things work better in one’s own app as opposed to the app of a rival.
• This is already emerging in the Matter 1.0 specification where its creators admit that while Matter will cover the basic functionality of devices, it is unlikely to cover all of the features on offer.
• A simple example would be a light bulb where Matter supports turning it on and off from anywhere but to get it to cycle through the colours of the rainbow, one would have to use the app of its native ecosystem.
• Hence, even in the best instance, Matter is not going to mean that users will be able to control all the features of their devices from one place, but it will simplify the current mess and make it much easier to add devices and access their basic functions.
• It is also not going to be backwards compatible with existing devices but there are solutions whereby older devices and systems that don’t support Matter can access it through software bridges.
• The practical upshot of this is that Matter is going to help reduce the fragmentation in the smart home and make it easier for devices to be accessed by all of the digital ecosystems, but it is not going to solve many of the issues that plague the smart home.
• Furthermore, the digital ecosystems will still want to ensure that users stick with their apps rather than the apps of others meaning that they will have an incentive to ensure that the interoperability is not perfect.
• When this is combined with the real possibility that fragmentation occurs as a result of how the specification is expressed in code it is not hard to see fragmentation occurring.
• The net result is that users are likely to still be making a choice between one ecosystem or another in the smart home and here. Amazon has the advantage.
• This is because it has more users and more devices than anyone else and attempts to dislodge it even with superior products have been unsuccessful.
• Hence, I still think that Amazon is ahead in the smart home, but Matter should help level the playing field a little bit.
• It will also make the smart home more accessible for consumers meaning that uptake of products and services generally may improve meaningfully from where it is today.
• This is good for all of the ecosystems which I suspect is why all of them have signed up for it as uptake to date has not fulfilled anything like its promise.
• Matter should get this issue a little further down the road.

• Amazon launched a plethora of devices that aim to strengthen its grip on the smart home, home and small office security, wellness and reading/note taking but there is no sign of Alexa getting any cleverer which at the end of the day is what Amazon really needs.
• Amazon held its annual device event where much of its product line received incremental updates but there were a few forays into new territory.
  • First, the Kindle scribe: which is a 10.3” e-paper device with a front light for nighttime reading but for the first time also allows note taking.
  • This has been primarily designed for annotation of reading materials, but it can also be used for taking notes during meetings.
  • To make this really good, it needs to support handwriting recognition combined with the ability to search notes but whether this has been included is unclear at this time.
  • I suspect that it is these features that will decide if it is a big success and therefore the outlook for this device is pretty uncertain.
  • Second, Halo rise: which is a bedside light, a sunrise clock, a smart speaker and a sleep tracker.
  • The sleep tracking functions via the use of a sensor that detects movement and respiration from which it can deduce sleep patterns.
  • In reality, this is only half of the story because a good night’s sleep is also about heart rate which is supported by all of the wearable sleep trackers.
  • Hence, this is not going to give very good sleep data but for the casual user who knocked over and broke his bedside light recently, this could be a useful replacement.
  • Third, Eero: which is the mesh WiFi company that Amazon purchased some years ago.
  • This is being extended into small businesses with the launch of a power-over-ethernet version as well as a gateway that is typically used by companies.
  • For consumer, Eero will now be implemented in the Echo Dot product meaning extra base stations for mesh WiFi being added at almost no extra cost to the Echo Dot user.
  • I expect Amazon to keep pushing in this area as it provides the backbone for all of its smart home devices to work better both individually and together.
  • Fourth, TV: On top of a new and improved Fire Cube, Amazon has also launched an OLED TV at 65” and 75” screen sizes to widen out its TV Omni line of products.
  • These support all of the latest standards such as HDR10 and Dolby Vision and come at pretty reasonable price points.
• The Ring security system also received a series of new products that improve motion detection and lighting which can now be integrated with Astro which can be dispatched to investigate and film any disturbances.
• The new devices deepen Amazon’s grip on the smart home but the real thing that is missing in this whole lineup is intelligence.
• The smart home strategy started with the Alexa smart speaker and many of the subsequent devices have it integrated meaning that in an Amazon devotee’s house the assistant is everywhere.
• The problem is that Alexa remains as stupid as ever (as does everyone else) because the AI that underpins these digital assistants is not well suited to the use case of conversing with humans.
• If Amazon really wants to take its smart home to the next level, this is what needs to be fixed, but unfortunately, I suspect that Amazon is incapable of managing this.
• This is because, Amazon is not really an AI company and, in RFM’s assessments, it still lags almost all of its digital assistant competitors and I see no signs of this changing any time soon.
• Alexa is used to play music, set timers and turn the lights on and off and even with these simple tasks, it often struggles often meaning that it is easier and quicker to get up and turn the lights on by hand.
• Hence, I suspect that Amazon will have to continue throwing mud at the walls with ever more esoteric use cases to see which devices users like and which they do not.
• Amazon has a strong grip on the smart home as Google’s challenge has fallen badly by the wayside, meaning that there is no immediate threat but to really bring this segment back into focus, the digital assistants need to get a lot smarter.
• Amazon’s valuation is slowly winding its way down towards something that I would consider reasonable, but it still has a long way before I would be willing to bite.

• Qualcomm is the first, and an atypical, dark horse that RFM has identified this year.
• This title is usually reserved for small companies that no one is taking much notice of but punch above their weight.
• No one is really talking about Qualcomm this year despite its keynote but on the floor, its chips are everywhere including big players like GM and Microsoft.
• This is particularly the case in automotive, autonomous driving and virtual reality and these are the hottest segments this year.
• Almost every keynote that was not from a competitor mentioned that it is using Qualcomm for something or other and I think it is on the cusp of breaking through in autonomous driving.
• This will be the first real challenge to Mobileye’s complete dominance in machine vision and the word is that Qualcomm’s offering is on par with Mobileye’s.
• Hence, I think that 2022 is looking like it will be a very good year for Qualcomm which is doing a good job of expanding beyond its core smartphone markets.
• The compelling valuation argument for Qualcomm has dissipated following its blistering rally, but with the outlook as good as this, there may be more to go.

3D displays / Dimenco – The troubles of others

• The hype and excitement growing around VR and the Metaverse is also spilling over to some degree into the 3D display segment that for 10 years has gone nowhere.
• Furthermore, the advent of remote working and learning has increased pressure for better remote interaction experiences which has further piqued interest in this sector.
• Dimenco is a provider of 3D without glasses displays and it has been struggling for years to get any traction.
• However, the fact that it has survived and can produce a product has enabled it to sign a partnership with Acer for 3D displays
• This is despite it offering an inferior technology compared to some of its erstwhile competitors.
• StreamTV Networks which has become SeeCubic has vastly superior technology to Dimenco, but internal wrangling has prevented the company from fulfilling the high-profile prototype projects it had which I think would have opened its way to market.
• Instead, Dimenco has been able to execute with an inferior product and now looks like it is ahead in terms of coming to market.
• This is still a market with a lot of promise while VR and AR remain in their infancy, but it is taking so long to get anywhere that its opportunity may have passed by the time the technology can be properly commercialised.

Wireless Power – It is still a dark horse

• Wireless power has been a theme I have liked for many years and every year it remains a dark horse at CES as it glacially inches towards market adoption.
• Samsung generated some buzz for this technology with the release of its TV remote control that can harvest power from 2.4Ghz WiFi signals.
• However, the amount of power that one can get from WiFi is very limited meaning that other remotes like console controllers would not be able to use this technology.
• Hence, if one wants power to these devices and other things like door locks or security cameras, one still needs to look elsewhere.
• Wireless power is the ability to charge devices wirelessly from several metres away but its applications in the market are nice to have rather than a must-have.
• This combined with the obvious safety concerns that arise when transmitting energy through the air, have really slowed it down.
• I continue to think that of all the players. Ossia is the one to watch.
• This is because it now has regulatory approval for its technology in 43 countries and has a partnership with Archos which is a maker of smart devices based in France.
• 4 devices are expected in the market this year which is considerably more than I could dig up from its competitors.
• If these devices prove to be popular this could kick start the market bringing wireless power out from the shadows of obscurity.

• Amazon released a series of products and services in what looks like an experiment to see how much privacy users are willing to surrender in return for fun and convenience.
• Amazon only speaks to the market like this once a year meaning that every event is loaded with both hardware and software products, updates, and services.
  • First, Astro: which is a small dog-sized robot on three wheels that carries a display and a periscope camera as well as a series of detectors that can monitor your home.
  • It also has two cupholders on its back for those that are too lazy to carry their own coffee or deliver it to another member of the household.
  • The key to this product will be the intelligence that Amazon has infused into the device.
  • Given Amazon’s history here, I am not optimistic (see Google comments below), but the device will be upgradeable as Amazon improves.
  • No one is really sure what this device is for other than having a dog that doesn’t need to be house trained, which is why it is going out as an invitation-only product at launch.
  • This basically means that Amazon doesn’t know what it is for either, but is hoping that its fan base will figure something out.
  • Second, Echo Show 15: which is an upgrade to the Echo show 10 except that this time, it is designed to be attached to the wall.
  • This adds complications in terms of power and even the demo unit had an ugly wire going down the wall from behind the device.
  • It can do all of the things that the previous Echo Shows can do but I think it is neither fish nor fowl.
  • It is not big enough to be a TV or a picture frame, but probably too big to go the backsplash in the kitchen.
  • Another experiment by Amazon and only time will tell to see if it sticks.
  • Third, Glow: which is aimed at kids and, in addition to its onboard screen and camera, projects a 19-inch display onto the surface with which kids can interact.
  • Distant relatives can also interact with the on-device display while on a video call creating an enclosed system.
  • This will also require an additional subscription from Amazon for the content and apps on the device.
  • Again, this looks like another experiment but it may prove to be a good addition for users with distant relatives and who are already all-in on the Amazon ecosystem.
  • Fourth, Ring: Not to be outdone by 1^st party products, Ring also made a number of announcements.
  • The concept home drone camera is back and this time is being made available to the faithful on an invite-only basis presumably for beta testing.
  • Also announced was a Ring Alarm Pro which is an update to its already shipping home security products.
  • This combines the Ring security system with an Eero router gibing internet backup, local processing, and storage for Ring cameras.
  • The base station stitches together the cameras, door locks, bells, motion detectors, smoke alarms, and so on to provide an integrated home security service.
  • This can be upgraded with a $20 subscription that enables cloud back-up but also professional monitoring by humans.
  • This competes directly with the home security services that are currently on offer but with much more machine intelligence as well as more compromises on privacy.
  • The home security market is ripe for disruption but there needs to be a balance between security and privacy.
  • Here, Amazon allows you to tailor this balance to one’s requirements but only time will tell how popular this proves to be.
  • Fifth Processing: Amazon’s efforts in silicon are bearing fruit with a new processor that improves Alexa’s ability to process voice requests locally.
  • Google has been doing this for more than two years which is an indicator that far from being a leader in voice recognition and AI, Amazon is way behind the leaders in terms of ability in this area.
  • However, its retail juggernaut has ensured that it is the market leader in digital assistants in the home.
• Amazon is following its tried and tested strategy of chucking mud at the wall to see what sticks.
• As a result, I do not expect to see all of these products still around in a couple of years as those that don’t work will get quickly killed off.
• These announcements are mainly an experiment to see to what degree Amazon can invade its user’s privacy before they push back.
• Ring has had problems in this area before and with cameras inside homes relaying video and sound, security becomes a company-breaking issue.
• It will only take one well publicised and compromising hack to set this initiative back years.
• This is why I am generally pretty cautious about this experiment in terms of it taking off in a big way for a while.
• I remain unenthused by Amazon’s share price, as the shares are going broadly sideways as the fundamentals grow much faster and bring the valuation to more reasonable levels.
• I have no urge to get involved with the shares yet.

• Xiaomi’s blacklisting looks more like an outgoing administration leaving stumbling blocks for the next inhabitant rather than a rational move to contain the rise of China.
• The US government has added Xiaomi and eight other companies to a blacklist which forbids US citizens and corporations from investing in the shares of companies on the blacklist.
• This not the entity list and there are currently no restrictions in terms of the supply of components or software but access to US capital has been completely cut off.
• Those that already hold the shares have until November to divest their holdings.
• Not surprisingly, shares in Xiaomi dived in trading but ended significantly off their lows with an overall decline of 10.3%.
• The US Government has decided that Xiaomi falls into the category of “Communist Chinese Military Companies” as it is “engaged in providing commercial services, manufacturing, producing, or exporting” to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
• To the letter of US law, this statement is almost certain to be 100% accurate as Xiaomi sells millions of smartphones and other smart home devices within its hardware ecosystem in the Chinese market.
• Hence, given that the PLA has somewhere between 2m and 3m personnel, it is almost certain that a good number of these people own a Xiaomi device of some description.
• Under this definition, one would expect that every consumer electronics, internet and service company would quickly follow Xiaomi onto this list.
• It is important to note that Xiaomi is no SMIC which has also been added to this list (see here) but where there is a very clear and demonstrable link between SMIC and the PLA.
• Looking through Xiaomi’s shareholder register (Bloomberg) reveals that the biggest two shareholders are Lin Bin (co-founder) and Smart Mobile Holdings Ltd which is one of Jun Lei’s (co-founder) companies.
• What follows is a series of well-known international asset managers and pension funds until one arrives at China Asset Management Company Ltd which is a subsidiary of a China mainland company that could conceivably be linked to the CCP and the PLA.
• However, this company owns 0.1% of Xiaomi and as a result, it will have no influence at all over how the company is run or how its products are designed and sold.
• Every Chinese company is also subject to a 2017 law that compels “any organisation and citizen” to “support and cooperate in national intelligence work”.
• Furthermore, the CCP has emphasised through a series of policy announcements that the private sector has a role in “United Front Work” which means that non-CCP organisations must support CCP policy objectives and support its role in government.
• This really means that any company headquartered in China could be viewed as being state-controlled or influenced giving the US government the ability to blacklist anyone that it sees wants.
• Xiaomi is also no Huawei and is not seen as a Chinese national champion and putting pressure on it is unlikely to deliver the same negotiating pressure as Huawei has done (see here).
• Hence, this looks like the last move to increase pressure on China and raise awareness of this issue before a new administration takes over.
• The new administration can reverse this (and most of the other) trade actions taken against China very quickly but given that there is general agreement in the USA with regard to the threat that China represents, I can see the new administration sitting on this for a while.
• Consequently, I don’t expect this to be reversed in the immediate term meaning that there could be pressure on Xiaomi’s valuation given the limited access to capital it now has.
• It still has a long way to fall before this could be called a bargain, but it is now one to pay a little closer attention to.

• Google’s new devices keep pace with the specification of its competitors and beat them when it came to software and AI performance but is unlikely to much more than offer token competition.

Pixel.

• Google changing tack here and being far more aggressive on price in a bid to drive some badly needed volume.
• The Pixel 5 has mid-range specifications and 5G and is starting at $699 which comes with 3-month subscriptions to most of Google’s services as a sweetener.
• This is roughly half what Apple’s top of the range flagship is likely to cost.
• Google is also updating the Pixel XL 4A to 5G and this is starting at $499 making it one of the most reasonable 5G phones available.
• Where Google lacks in pure hardware specifications it makes up in software and AI functionality.
• New features in Google Duo allow screen sharing and video sharing for the first time on a smartphone.
• Google has also extended its AI-driven video manipulation to improve night mode and this will be backwards compatible with older devices through a software upgrade.
• It also extended its video stabilisation function with three new modes which again will also be extended to older devices.
• The most perplexing thing was Google’s promise of 3 years of Android and security updates.
• I have a 5-year-old Samsung that still gets updates so I am not sure what Google is saying here as it would seem to be threatening to cut the user off after three years in order to force a hardware upgrade.

Google TV.

• The new and improved Chromecast (and a big improvement it is) bringing Google into line with AppleTV, Fire TV and so on.
• The device now has a remote with shortcut buttons to Netflix and other popular services.
• It costs $49.99 and should support 4K making it one of the most cost-effective ways to turn a dumb TV into a smart TV available.

Nest Audio.

• This is essentially the latest version of the Google Home which now is home under the Nest brand.
• The focus has been on improving the audio with bold claims being made about how the audio has improved while the price remains unchanged at $99.

Take-Home Message

• This was a more-of-same launch from Google.
• The aim is to compete on price but then differentiate with superior services underpinned by Google’s best in class AI.
• This is the right strategy, but something is getting lost in the execution.
• This is obvious because Pixel is a rounding error in device shipments and Google is still failing to take the fight to Amazon in the smart home.
• I think a good hard look is required at sales and marketing as this is where I suspect things are going astray.
• Google is also not a hardware company and this effort is vestigial to the ecosystem behemoth that tolerates it meaning that it gets very little priority across the company as a whole.
• I still think a closer co-operation with Samsung (see here) is the best way to go.

• Amazon has launched some radical redesigns and ideas once again demonstrating how experimental Amazon is prepared to be when it comes to looking for what works in the smart home.

Alexa

• Top of the list is the complete redesign of the Echo flagship product into a sphere.
• This gives the device a more futuristic look and also enables better sound quality given the greater surface area from which to radiate sound.
• The new device also has the self-tune to the room ability that was first launched by Apple but which is becoming table stakes in smart speakers.
• The Echo dot has also been redesigned to this new look and feel which I think is radical enough to encourage previous owners to upgrade.
• The Echo Show has also had a major upgrade as the screen and camera now track the user making conference calls in the kitchen more straight forward and interactive.
• Pricing remains the same.

Ring

• By far the wackiest launch was the Ring Always Home Camera which is a security camera attached to an indoor drone that will fly predetermined routes around the house and stream the footage to the owner’s smartphone.
• This means that all the doors in the house have to be open all of the time and has of course raised all of the privacy concerns that one would expect.
• This is clearly designed for when one is out of the house and there is no way one will not know that this thing is around as drones are noisy and this is no different.
• Ring also announced three devices for the vehicle including an LTE-connected car cam, and OBD-II connected car alarm and a module for car makers to integrate into their vehicles.
• These are fairly obvious aftermarket devices that aim to make dumb vehicles a bit smarter but the connect platform is the most interesting.
• Ring Connect is an API platform that OEMs integrate into their vehicles.
• This allows Ring / Amazon to access the built-in systems of the vehicle such as the back-up camera and its locks but the long-term intent obviously goes much further.
• Its initial capability has clearly been restricted to stop carmakers from getting nervous about Amazon having access to their customers when in the vehicle, but in the long-term, it is not hard to see where this goes.

Amazon Fire devices

• Two new Fire devices which are supposed to be more capable for 4K streaming as well as more affordable.
• Amazon also launched a streaming game service called Luna to take on Google and Microsoft in this increasingly crowded segment.
• Amazon has been sensible with this gaming service and is only offering game specifications that it can be pretty confident of delivering, unlike Google.
• One trick it has is that the controller connects directly to the Amazon’s servers rather than going through the local device in an attempt to reduce the latency that has plagued other offerings.
• It remains to be seen whether or not this will work.
• At $4.99 a month, this is priced for experimentation and if it works well could see some uptake

Take-Home Message

• This launch is a combination of incremental updates and wild experimentation but underneath it is aiming to make the Amazon Smart Home offering increasingly wide-spread and pervasive.
• Google is increasingly looking like it has been left behind in this space despite the superior performance of its voice assistant.
• It has a lot of ground to make up when it launches its offerings for the smart home in a month or so’s time.

• Google has opened up a new front in the battle with Amazon by forming a partnership with ADT in order to deliver smart home security to ADT’s 6m US-based customers.
• Google is buying a 6.6% stake in ADT for $450m which is already worth $670m thanks to a bounce in the share price following the news of the transaction.
• The key to this deal was in a Reuters interview (see here) and not in any of the press releases which is that “ADT will exclusively support Nest products”.
• This means that ADT will not be integrating with Amazon’s Ring and I suspect that its other smart security strategies will be quietly put to sleep.
• ADT has already had a go at this sector when it teamed up with Samsung to offer SmartThings products as well as a range of security cameras under its own Blue brand.
• Neither of these have gone particularly well once again underlying that the secret to a decent user experience these days is all about the software and the intelligence that sits behind the hardware rather than the hardware itself.
• This, of course, assumes that hardware is of a minimum level of quality.
• Google has its own problems in this area as its first attempt at a smoke alarm was a disaster and it has struggled with a number of other issues in this area.
• Most of these problems have been hardware and reliability focused meaning that for Google there is also some value in its relationship with ADT beyond its customer base.
• Dumb but reliable products are ADT’s forte and so with ADT making (or at least having input into Nest’s products) and Google doing the brains a decent suite of products could result.
• Although this is a good match, this is much harder to get right than it sounds.
• Google typically provides its products on a best effort basis meaning that if occasionally they don’t work, its not really a big deal.
• This is one of the reasons why the technology industry is having such a hard time with autonomous driving because it has to be very reliable and almost never go wrong.
• The same thing is true for home security because if it fails to pick up an incident then it is worthless and if it has lots of false positives, the user experience will be so badly degraded that the user will throw it in the bin.
• This is pretty much exactly what happened with Nest’s smoke alarm.
• Hence, this needs to be much more than a loose co-operation between the two companies and there may come a time when Google decides to acquire ADT.
• This is what I suspect the market was speculating when it sent the shares to $20 from $8.58 before settling at the end of the session at $13.48.
• On the home speaker front, the battle has long looked like it was over (I haven’t written on this for over a year) with victory clearly going to Amazon but here Google is opening up a new front.
• Amazon is doing reasonably well with Ring but an exclusive arrangement with ADT gives Google an opportunity to rectify the balance.
• Perhaps if it produces an excellent series of products and wins great traction for home security, that might give it a beachhead from which to launch a renewed assault on Amazon in the other areas of the smart home.
• That is a big if because Google has such a bad case of engineering disease (see here), I am far from convinced that it will be willing to take input from ADT to ensure that the reliability of its products is good enough.
• Hence, I think that the default position will be that the opportunity with ADT will be largely squandered leaving Amazon unchallenged in the smart home and smart home security segments.
• However, I will reserve final judgement when we start to see some joint products from the two companies.

• Until there is a vaccine, no one is going to want to touch anything they don’t own which paves the way for greater penetration of touchless technology for things like payments, doors, bathrooms and so on.
• Touchless technology almost always requires the device to have a power source which can be tiresome or expensive to provide as wires and transformers need to be installed or batteries constantly changed.
• The timing of wireless-power-at-distance technology is perfect as it demonstrated at CES 2020 that it is reaching a commercial level of quality and performance just in time to capitalise on this trend.
• This makes it much easier to install touchless sensors and devices and also enable them to do far more than they can today.
• This is because many devices that are installed with batteries have to make big compromises on their functionality in order that the device has a long enough battery life to prevent the owner from going crazy.
• If power can be delivered from a distance, this requirement disappears, and these devices will be able to do far more than currently.
• A good example is door locks where the functionality is pretty limited by the power constraint but could have much greater functionality such as cameras and intercoms with this restriction lifted.
• Wireless power at distance is a sub-sector of the technology sector I have kept an eye on for a while and I think that the combination of it just reaching commerciality and the virus-induced reticence to touch anything will create an upswing in demand.
• There are two ways to deliver power that I have seen that look viable each with its advantages and disadvantages.
  • First, Infra-red: which uses infra-red waves to carry power to a receptor on the device.
  • Infra-red has the advantage of being able to safely carry higher power over a longer distance, but the emitter must be aimed directly at the receiver.
  • This makes it ideal for devices that need more power but these need to be devices that are fixed and do not move.
  • The transmitter is also relatively simple and compact in size.
  • Things like security cameras, taps and lavatories would be good examples of where I think this technology excels.
  • Second, Radio waves: which uses ordinary radio waves in unoccupied parts of the spectrum to carry power.
  • This technology carries less power than infra-red and suffers from power drop off with distance from the transmitter but has a big advantage in that it can track moving devices very well and offer power over a much wider coverage area.
  • Hence, this technology is ideal for devices with lower power requirements and devices that move around.
  • This technology can also be used in devices with higher power requirements, but these may also require a battery to provide the extra power which is then trickle charged wirelessly when the device is not in use.
• Both technologies are able to switch off transmission when the receiver is obstructed thus ensuring that humans and animals are not blasted with (most likely harmless) electromagnetic waves carrying power.
• The two leaders in this field, in my opinion, are Ossia (Rf) and Wi-Charge (IR), followed by Powercast which has shown very good improvement over the last 12 months.
• Newcomer GuRu has some distance to go to be commercial while Energous continuous to struggle to do much more than Qi charging has already achieved.
• Neither Ossia nor Wi-Charge are publicly listed but I think that both warrant a look if they need to raise money to increase their scale as this trend takes hold in the market.
• However, in this environment, no one in their right mind will be raising money unless they absolutely have to given the pressure on start-up valuations.